Discounted Cash Flow

Mattel Inc. /De/

MAT · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $5.5b $318.0m $472.4m 5.8% $0.93
2017 $4.9b (-10.5%) $-1.1b (-431.4%) $-195.8m (-141.5%) -21.6% (-470.4%) $-3.07 (-430.1%)
2018 $4.5b (-7.5%) $-533.3m (49.4%) $-102.0m (47.9%) -11.8% (45.3%) $-1.55 (49.5%)
2019 $4.5b (-0.2%) $-213.5m (60.0%) $115.1m (212.9%) -4.7% (59.9%) $-0.62 (60.0%)
2020 $4.6b (1.8%) $126.6m (159.3%) $226.3m (96.6%) 2.8% (158.3%) $0.36 (158.1%)
2021 $5.5b (19.1%) $903.0m (613.1%) $408.3m (80.4%) 16.5% (498.9%) $2.58 (616.7%)
2022 $5.4b (-0.4%) $393.9m (-56.4%) $336.5m (-17.6%) 7.2% (-56.2%) $1.11 (-57.0%)
2023 $5.4b (0.1%) $214.4m (-45.6%) $784.0m (133.0%) 3.9% (-45.6%) $0.61 (-45.0%)
2024 $5.4b (-1.1%) $541.8m (152.8%) $665.4m (-15.1%) 10.1% (155.7%) $1.59 (160.7%)
2025 $5.3b (-0.6%) $397.6m (-26.6%) $482.6m (-27.5%) 7.4% (-26.2%) $1.25 (-21.4%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model