Discounted Cash Flow

Mercury General Corp.

MCY · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $3.2b $73.0m $287.5m 2.3% $1.32
2017 $3.4b (5.8%) $144.9m (98.3%) $341.4m (18.8%) 4.2% (87.4%) $2.62 (98.5%)
2018 $3.4b (-1.1%) $-5.7m (-104.0%) $383.4m (12.3%) -0.2% (-104.0%) $-0.10 (-103.8%)
2019 $4.0b (17.5%) $320.1m (5688.1%) $519.7m (35.5%) 8.1% (4854.6%) $5.78 (5880.0%)
2020 $3.8b (-4.7%) $374.6m (17.0%) $605.6m (16.5%) 9.9% (22.8%) $6.77 (17.1%)
2021 $4.0b (5.5%) $247.9m (-33.8%) $501.6m (-17.2%) 6.2% (-37.3%) $4.48 (-33.8%)
2022 $3.6b (-8.8%) $-512.7m (-306.8%) $317.1m (-36.8%) -14.1% (-326.7%) $-9.26 (-306.7%)
2023 $4.6b (27.1%) $96.3m (118.8%) $416.2m (31.3%) 2.1% (114.8%) $1.74 (118.8%)
2024 $5.5b (18.3%) $468.0m (385.8%) $991.0m (138.1%) 8.5% (310.7%) $8.45 (385.6%)
2025 $6.0b (9.4%) $541.1m (15.6%) $1.0b (3.8%) 9.0% (5.7%) $9.77 (15.6%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model