Discounted Cash Flow

Mercadolibre Inc.

MELI · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $844.4m $136.4m $136.4m 16.1% $3.09
2017 $1.4b (65.6%) $13.8m (-89.9%) $-4.3b (-3242.0%) 1.0% (-93.9%) $0.31 (-90.0%)
2018 $1.4b (3.0%) $-36.6m (-365.5%) $-36.6m (99.1%) -2.5% (-357.8%) $-0.82 (-364.5%)
2019 $2.3b (59.5%) $-172.0m (-370.1%) $-172.0m (-370.1%) -7.5% (-194.7%) $-3.71 (-352.4%)
2020 $4.0b (73.0%) $-707.0k (99.6%) $-4.0b (-2235.7%) -0.0% (99.8%) $-0.08 (97.8%)
2021 $8.4b (112.1%) $83.3m (11882.7%) $-6.4b (-59.5%) 1.0% (5654.8%) $1.67 (2187.5%)
2022 $13.9b (64.5%) $482.0m (478.6%) $482.0m (107.5%) 3.5% (251.7%) $9.57 (473.1%)
2023 $15.1b (8.9%) $987.0m (104.8%) $987.0m (104.8%) 6.5% (88.0%) $19.64 (105.2%)
2024 $20.8b (37.5%) $1.9b (93.6%) $-8.8b (-990.8%) 9.2% (40.8%) $37.69 (91.9%)
2025 $28.9b (39.1%) $2.0b (4.5%) $-2.6b (70.0%) 6.9% (-24.9%) $39.40 (4.5%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model