Discounted Cash Flow

Mizuho Financial Group Inc. ADR

MFG · Based on 10 years of SEC filings · Converted from JPY to USD

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2017 $2.9t $2.3b $2.3b 0.1% $14.33
2018 $1.8t (-38.8%) $3.6b (59.4%) $-2.8b (-224.1%) 0.2% (160.2%) $22.77 (58.9%)
2019 $3.4t (94.7%) $530.0m (-85.4%) $3.2b (211.9%) 0.0% (-92.5%) $3.33 (-85.4%)
2020 $3.5t (0.8%) $942.3m (77.8%) $942.3m (-70.2%) 0.0% (76.3%) $5.92 (77.8%)
2021 $3.5t (1.1%) $3.6b (287.3%) $1.6b (71.3%) 0.1% (283.0%) $229.27 (3772.8%)
2022 $2.1t (-39.6%) $-657.0m (-118.0%) $-657.0m (-140.7%) -0.0% (-129.8%) $-41.28 (-118.0%)
2023 $4.3t (102.3%) $-87.9m (86.6%) $5.2b (884.3%) -0.0% (93.4%) $-5.52 (86.6%)
2024 $8.5t (99.0%) $5.7b (6613.5%) $-23.3b (-552.6%) 0.1% (3373.2%) $359.70 (6616.3%)
2025 $8.2t (-4.0%) $3.7b (-35.0%) $-1.8b (92.5%) 0.0% (-32.3%) $234.55 (-34.8%)
2026 $8.8t (7.6%) $7.3b (95.2%) $-13.1b (-648.6%) 0.1% (81.3%) $466.16 (98.7%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

SEC filings report in JPY. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model