Discounted Cash Flow

MGE Energy Inc.

MGEE · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $544.7m $75.6m $63.9m 13.9% $1.21
2017 $563.1m (3.4%) $97.6m (29.2%) $24.9m (-61.1%) 17.3% (25.0%) $1.26 (4.1%)
2018 $559.8m (-0.6%) $84.2m (-13.7%) $-59.2m (-338.0%) 15.0% (-13.2%) $1.32 (4.8%)
2019 $568.9m (1.6%) $86.9m (3.2%) $-33.6m (43.3%) 15.3% (1.5%) $1.38 (4.5%)
2020 $538.6m (-5.3%) $92.4m (6.4%) $-30.7m (8.5%) 17.2% (12.4%) $1.45 (5.1%)
2021 $606.6m (12.6%) $105.8m (14.4%) $-15.6m (49.0%) 17.4% (1.6%) $2.92 (101.4%)
2022 $714.5m (17.8%) $111.0m (4.9%) $-21.3m (-36.1%) 15.5% (-10.9%) $3.07 (5.1%)
2023 $690.4m (-3.4%) $117.7m (6.1%) $15.5m (172.7%) 17.0% (9.8%) $3.25 (5.9%)
2024 $676.9m (-2.0%) $120.6m (2.4%) $40.9m (163.8%) 17.8% (4.5%) $3.33 (2.5%)
2025 $743.7m (9.9%) $135.9m (12.7%) $-80.0m (-295.8%) 18.3% (2.6%) $3.72 (11.7%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model