Discounted Cash Flow

Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp.

MGY · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $110.9m $21.5m $30.5m 19.4%
2017 $0 (-100.0%) $1.5m (-92.9%) $236.3k (-99.2%) $0.02
2019 $936.1m $47.4m (2995.8%) $47.4m (19971.8%) 5.1% $0.53 (2525.5%)
2020 $534.5m (-42.9%) $-1.2b (-2647.6%) $310.1m (553.8%) -226.1% (-4561.9%) $-11.24 (-2240.7%)
2021 $1.1b (101.7%) $417.3m (134.5%) $788.5m (154.2%) 38.7% (117.1%) $3.21 (128.6%)
2022 $1.7b (57.1%) $893.8m (114.2%) $831.5m (5.5%) 52.7% (36.3%) $5.60 (74.6%)
2023 $1.2b (-27.6%) $388.3m (-56.6%) $430.9m (-48.2%) 31.6% (-40.0%) $2.35 (-58.0%)
2024 $1.3b (7.2%) $366.0m (-5.7%) $434.1m (0.7%) 27.8% (-12.1%) $2.13 (-9.4%)
2025 $1.3b (-0.3%) $325.3m (-11.1%) $409.2m (-5.7%) 24.8% (-10.9%) $1.82 (-14.7%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model