Discounted Cash Flow

Markel Group Inc.

MKL · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $5.6b $455.7m $470.9m 8.1% $31.41
2017 $6.1b (8.0%) $395.3m (-13.3%) $783.9m (66.4%) 6.5% (-19.7%) $25.89 (-17.6%)
2018 $2.1b (-64.8%) $-128.2m (-132.4%) $786.3m (0.3%) -6.0% (-192.2%) $-9.55 (-136.9%)
2019 $2.4b (13.6%) $1.8b (1496.8%) $1.2b (46.4%) 73.9% (1329.5%) $129.25 (1453.4%)
2020 $3.1b (29.3%) $816.0m (-54.4%) $1.6b (42.2%) 26.0% (-64.8%) $55.67 (-56.9%)
2021 $4.0b (27.4%) $2.4b (197.2%) $2.1b (30.1%) 60.8% (133.3%) $176.92 (217.8%)
2022 $5.2b (31.2%) $-214.1m (-108.8%) $-214.1m (-110.1%) -4.1% (-106.7%) $-23.57 (-113.3%)
2023 $15.8b (201.8%) $2.0b (1032.2%) $2.5b (1280.7%) 12.6% (408.9%) $147.32 (725.0%)
2024 $16.6b (5.2%) $2.7b (37.6%) $2.3b (-7.5%) 16.5% (30.9%) $199.69 (35.5%)
2025 $15.5b (-6.7%) $2.1b (-23.3%) $2.6b (9.2%) 13.6% (-17.8%) $169.74 (-15.0%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model