Discounted Cash Flow

Martin Marietta Materials Inc.

MLM · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $3.8b $425.4m $291.4m 11.1% $6.66
2017 $4.0b (3.8%) $713.3m (67.7%) $247.6m (-15.0%) 18.0% (61.5%) $11.30 (69.7%)
2018 $4.2b (7.0%) $470.0m (-34.1%) $329.2m (33.0%) 11.1% (-38.4%) $7.46 (-34.0%)
2019 $4.7b (11.7%) $611.9m (30.2%) $572.6m (73.9%) 12.9% (16.6%) $9.77 (31.0%)
2020 $4.7b (-0.2%) $721.0m (17.8%) $690.4m (20.6%) 15.2% (18.1%) $11.56 (18.3%)
2021 $5.4b (14.5%) $702.5m (-2.6%) $714.6m (3.5%) 13.0% (-14.9%) $11.26 (-2.6%)
2022 $6.2b (13.8%) $866.8m (23.4%) $509.4m (-28.7%) 14.1% (8.4%) $13.91 (23.5%)
2023 $6.8b (10.0%) $1.2b (34.9%) $878.1m (72.4%) 17.2% (22.6%) $18.88 (35.7%)
2024 $6.5b (-3.6%) $2.0b (70.7%) $604.0m (-31.2%) 30.5% (77.0%) $32.50 (72.1%)
2025 $6.2b (-5.9%) $1.1b (-43.0%) $978.0m (61.9%) 18.5% (-39.4%) $18.81 (-42.1%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model