Discounted Cash Flow

Mach Natural Resources L.P.

MNR · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $828.6k $-480.9k $-480.9k -58.0% $-0.01
2017 $1.3m (58.5%) $355.9k (174.0%) $355.9k (174.0%) 27.1% (146.7%) $0.01 (200.0%)
2018 $26.0k (-98.0%) $1.3m (267.1%) $1.7m (364.5%) 5023.8% (18435.2%) $0.03 (200.0%)
2019 $147.2m (565973.1%) $2.2m (72.1%) $967.9k (-41.5%) 1.5% (-100.0%) $0.05 (66.7%)
2020 $42.5m (-71.1%) $2.0m (-10.9%) $239.4k (-75.3%) 4.7% (208.4%) $0.04 (-20.0%)
2021 $392.5m (823.6%) $138.4m (6811.7%) $160.7m (67010.7%) 35.3% (648.4%) $0.02 (-50.0%)
2022 $937.4m (138.8%) $516.8m (273.5%) $320.0m (99.1%) 55.1% (56.4%) $0.01 (-50.0%)
2023 $762.3m (-18.7%) $346.6m (-32.9%) $189.4m (-40.8%) 45.5% (-17.5%) $0.72 (7100.0%)
2024 $969.6m (27.2%) $185.2m (-46.6%) $295.9m (56.3%) 19.1% (-58.0%) $1.90 (163.9%)
2025 $1.2b (21.2%) $143.0m (-22.8%) $244.7m (-17.3%) 12.2% (-36.3%) $1.09 (-42.6%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model