Discounted Cash Flow

Altria Group, Inc.

MO · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $25.7b $14.2b $2.2b 55.3% $7.28
2017 $25.6b (-0.7%) $10.2b (-28.2%) $4.9b (122.4%) 40.0% (-27.7%) $5.31 (-27.1%)
2018 $25.4b (-0.8%) $7.0b (-31.9%) $-4.4b (-189.6%) 27.5% (-31.3%) $3.69 (-30.5%)
2019 $25.1b (-1.0%) $-1.3b (-118.6%) $7.8b (277.6%) -5.1% (-118.8%) $-0.70 (-119.0%)
2020 $26.2b (4.2%) $4.5b (445.5%) $8.2b (4.1%) 17.1% (431.7%) $2.40 (442.9%)
2021 $26.0b (-0.5%) $2.5b (-44.6%) $8.2b (1.0%) 9.5% (-44.3%) $1.34 (-44.2%)
2022 $25.1b (-3.5%) $5.8b (132.9%) $8.1b (-2.2%) 23.0% (141.4%) $3.19 (138.1%)
2023 $24.5b (-2.4%) $8.1b (41.0%) $9.1b (12.9%) 33.2% (44.6%) $4.57 (43.3%)
2024 $24.0b (-1.9%) $11.3b (38.5%) $8.6b (-5.3%) 46.9% (41.2%) $6.54 (43.1%)
2025 $23.3b (-3.1%) $6.9b (-38.3%) $9.1b (5.4%) 29.8% (-36.4%) $4.12 (-37.0%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model