Discounted Cash Flow

Hello Group Inc. ADR

MOMO · Based on 10 years of SEC filings · Converted from CNY to USD

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $553.1m $21.5m $31.3m 3.9% $0.38
2017 $1.3b (138.3%) $47.1m (119.3%) $58.5m (87.1%) 3.6% (-8.0%) $0.81 (113.2%)
2018 $2.0b (47.9%) $60.6m (28.6%) $66.4m (13.5%) 3.1% (-13.1%) $1.01 (24.7%)
2019 $2.4b (25.3%) $439.7m (625.4%) $111.9m (68.5%) 18.0% (478.8%) $1.03 (2.0%)
2020 $2.3b (-5.8%) $311.3m (-29.2%) $67.1m (-40.1%) 13.5% (-24.8%) $0.77 (-25.2%)
2021 $2.3b (-0.7%) $-431.2m (-238.5%) $34.0m (-49.3%) -18.9% (-239.4%) $-1.13 (-246.8%)
2022 $1.8b (-19.5%) $219.7m (150.9%) $179.8m (429.0%) 11.9% (163.3%) $0.55 (148.7%)
2023 $1.7b (-8.2%) $289.7m (31.9%) $325.0m (80.7%) 17.1% (43.7%) $0.73 (32.7%)
2024 $1.4b (-14.4%) $153.9m (-46.9%) $236.9m (-27.1%) 10.6% (-38.0%) $0.39 (-46.6%)
2025 $1.5b (2.4%) $119.0m (-22.7%) $164.7m (-30.5%) 8.0% (-24.5%) $0.35 (-10.3%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

SEC filings report in CNY. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model