Discounted Cash Flow

Mosaic Co.

MOS · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $7.2b $297.8m $423.0m 4.2% $0.85
2017 $7.4b (3.4%) $-107.2m (-136.0%) $115.4m (-72.7%) -1.4% (-134.8%) $-0.31 (-136.5%)
2018 $-166.1m (-102.2%) $470.0m (538.4%) $455.3m (294.5%) -283.0% (-19457.6%) $1.22 (493.5%)
2019 $-182.9m (-10.1%) $-1.1b (-327.1%) $-176.8m (-138.8%) 583.6% (306.2%) $-2.78 (-327.9%)
2020 $8.7b (4846.7%) $666.1m (162.4%) $412.0m (333.0%) 7.7% (-98.7%) $1.76 (163.3%)
2021 $12.4b (42.3%) $1.6b (144.8%) $898.4m (118.1%) 13.2% (72.0%) $4.31 (144.9%)
2022 $19.1b (54.8%) $3.6b (119.7%) $2.7b (199.3%) 18.7% (42.0%) $10.17 (136.0%)
2023 $13.7b (-28.4%) $1.2b (-67.5%) $1.0b (-62.6%) 8.5% (-54.6%) $3.52 (-65.4%)
2024 $11.1b (-18.8%) $174.9m (-85.0%) $47.4m (-95.3%) 1.6% (-81.5%) $0.55 (-84.4%)
2025 $12.1b (8.4%) $540.7m (209.1%) $-534.6m (-1227.8%) 4.5% (185.3%) $1.70 (209.1%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model