Discounted Cash Flow

Marathon Petroleum Corp.

MPC · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $17.2b $1.2b $1.1b 6.8% $2.22
2017 $21.1b (22.7%) $3.4b (192.3%) $3.9b (254.4%) 16.3% (138.2%) $6.76 (204.5%)
2018 $95.8b (354.8%) $2.8b (-19.0%) $2.6b (-33.5%) 2.9% (-82.2%) $5.36 (-20.7%)
2019 $123.9b (29.5%) $2.6b (-5.1%) $4.1b (57.6%) 2.1% (-26.7%) $4.00 (-25.4%)
2020 $69.8b (-43.7%) $-9.8b (-472.6%) $-368.0m (-109.0%) -14.1% (-761.9%) $-15.13 (-478.3%)
2021 $120.0b (71.9%) $9.7b (199.1%) $2.9b (887.0%) 8.1% (157.6%) $15.34 (201.4%)
2022 $177.5b (47.9%) $14.5b (49.1%) $13.9b (381.4%) 8.2% (0.8%) $28.31 (84.6%)
2023 $148.4b (-16.4%) $9.7b (-33.3%) $12.2b (-12.3%) 6.5% (-20.2%) $23.73 (-16.2%)
2024 $138.9b (-6.4%) $3.4b (-64.4%) $6.1b (-49.8%) 2.5% (-62.0%) $10.11 (-57.4%)
2025 $132.7b (-4.4%) $4.0b (17.5%) $4.8b (-22.3%) 3.0% (22.9%) $13.24 (31.0%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model