Discounted Cash Flow

Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc.

MRSH · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $13.2b $27.0m $1.8b 0.2% $3.41
2017 $14.0b (6.2%) $20.0m (-25.9%) $1.6b (-9.3%) 0.1% (-30.2%) $2.91 (-14.7%)
2018 $14.9b (6.6%) $20.0m (0.0%) $2.1b (32.9%) 0.1% (-6.2%) $3.26 (12.0%)
2019 $16.7b (11.4%) $31.0m (55.0%) $1.9b (-8.2%) 0.2% (39.2%) $3.44 (5.5%)
2020 $17.2b (3.4%) $30.0m (-3.2%) $3.0b (56.4%) 0.2% (-6.4%) $3.98 (15.7%)
2021 $19.8b (15.1%) $31.0m (3.3%) $3.1b (2.5%) 0.2% (-10.2%) $6.20 (55.8%)
2022 $20.7b (4.5%) $37.0m (19.4%) $3.0b (-3.7%) 0.2% (14.2%) $6.11 (-1.5%)
2023 $22.7b (9.7%) $46.0m (24.3%) $3.8b (28.3%) 0.2% (13.3%) $7.60 (24.4%)
2024 $24.5b (7.6%) $57.0m (23.9%) $4.0b (3.7%) 0.2% (15.2%) $8.26 (8.7%)
2025 $27.0b (10.3%) $74.0m (29.8%) $5.0b (25.5%) 0.3% (17.7%) $8.48 (2.7%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model