Discounted Cash Flow

Microsoft Corp.

MSFT · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $85.3b $16.8b $-96.4b 19.7% $2.12
2017 $90.0b (5.4%) $21.2b (26.2%) $-137.4b (-42.5%) 23.6% (19.7%) $2.74 (29.2%)
2018 $110.4b (22.7%) $16.6b (-21.8%) $-93.5b (32.0%) 15.0% (-36.3%) $2.15 (-21.5%)
2019 $125.8b (14.0%) $39.2b (136.8%) $-5.5b (94.1%) 31.2% (107.7%) $5.11 (137.7%)
2020 $143.0b (13.6%) $44.3b (12.8%) $-16.5b (-199.6%) 31.0% (-0.7%) $5.82 (13.9%)
2021 $168.1b (17.5%) $61.3b (38.4%) $13.8b (183.7%) 36.5% (17.7%) $8.12 (39.5%)
2022 $198.3b (18.0%) $72.7b (18.7%) $62.6b (352.9%) 36.7% (0.6%) $9.70 (19.5%)
2023 $211.9b (6.9%) $72.4b (-0.5%) $49.9b (-20.2%) 34.1% (-6.9%) $9.72 (0.2%)
2024 $245.1b (15.7%) $88.1b (21.8%) $100.8b (101.9%) 36.0% (5.3%) $11.86 (22.0%)
2025 $281.7b (14.9%) $101.8b (15.5%) $106.4b (5.5%) 36.1% (0.5%) $13.70 (15.5%)
2026 $331.8b (17.8%) $133.7b (31.3%) $124.6b (17.1%) 40.3% (11.5%) $18.00 (31.4%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model