Discounted Cash Flow

Meritage Homes Corp.

MTH · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income
Dividends

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $3.0b $149.5m $-120.1m 4.9% $1.87
2017 $3.2b (6.5%) $143.3m (-4.2%) $-105.2m (12.4%) 4.4% (-10.1%) $1.78 (-4.8%)
2018 $7.0b (118.2%) $227.3m (58.7%) $228.8m (317.4%) 3.2% (-27.3%) $2.83 (59.3%)
2019 $7.3b (3.9%) $249.7m (9.8%) $322.4m (40.9%) 3.4% (5.7%) $3.27 (15.5%)
2020 $9.0b (22.8%) $423.5m (69.6%) $510.4m (58.3%) 4.7% (38.2%) $5.62 (71.5%)
2021 $10.3b (14.2%) $737.4m (74.1%) $-177.8m (-134.8%) 7.2% (52.5%) $9.80 (74.6%)
2022 $12.6b (22.4%) $992.2m (34.5%) $378.3m (312.8%) 7.9% (9.9%) $13.52 (37.9%)
2023 $12.3b (-2.5%) $738.7m (-25.5%) $317.4m (-16.1%) 6.0% (-23.7%) $10.09 (-25.4%)
2024 $12.8b (4.1%) $786.2m (6.4%) $-256.2m (-180.7%) 6.2% (2.2%) $5.42 (-46.2%)
2025 $11.7b (-8.4%) $453.0m (-42.4%) $92.6m (136.1%) 3.9% (-37.1%) $6.40 (18.0%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model