Discounted Cash Flow

Vail Resorts Inc.

MTN · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $1.6b $149.8m $317.5m 9.4% $4.13
2017 $1.9b (19.1%) $210.6m (40.6%) $312.5m (-1.6%) 11.0% (18.0%) $5.36 (29.8%)
2018 $2.0b (5.5%) $379.9m (80.4%) $411.0m (31.5%) 18.9% (71.1%) $9.40 (75.4%)
2019 $2.3b (12.9%) $301.2m (-20.7%) $442.2m (7.6%) 13.3% (-29.8%) $7.46 (-20.6%)
2020 $2.0b (-13.6%) $98.8m (-67.2%) $222.6m (-49.7%) 5.0% (-62.0%) $2.45 (-67.2%)
2021 $1.9b (-2.7%) $127.8m (29.4%) $410.2m (84.2%) 6.7% (33.0%) $3.17 (29.4%)
2022 $2.5b (32.3%) $347.9m (172.1%) $517.7m (26.2%) 13.8% (105.7%) $8.60 (171.3%)
2023 $2.9b (14.4%) $268.1m (-22.9%) $322.9m (-37.6%) 9.3% (-32.6%) $6.76 (-21.4%)
2024 $2.9b (-0.1%) $230.4m (-14.1%) $377.8m (17.0%) 8.0% (-14.0%) $6.08 (-10.1%)
2025 $3.0b (2.7%) $280.0m (21.5%) $319.7m (-15.4%) 9.4% (18.3%) $7.54 (24.0%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model