Discounted Cash Flow

Murphy OIL Corp.

MUR · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $1.8b $-276.0m $-95.1m -15.3% $-1.60
2017 $2.1b (15.9%) $-311.8m (-13.0%) $917.0m (1064.4%) -14.9% (2.5%) $-1.81 (-13.1%)
2018 $2.6b (23.3%) $411.1m (231.9%) $1.2b (33.0%) 15.9% (206.9%) $2.38 (231.5%)
2019 $2.8b (8.9%) $1.1b (179.7%) $1.5b (22.1%) 40.8% (156.8%) $7.01 (194.5%)
2020 $1.8b (-37.8%) $-1.1b (-199.9%) $802.7m (-46.1%) -65.6% (-260.7%) $-7.48 (-206.7%)
2021 $2.8b (59.9%) $-73.7m (93.6%) $-73.7m (-109.2%) -2.6% (96.0%) $-0.48 (93.6%)
2022 $4.2b (50.7%) $965.0m (1410.1%) $1.1b (1547.4%) 22.9% (969.6%) $6.22 (1395.8%)
2023 $3.4b (-18.3%) $661.6m (-31.4%) $647.2m (-39.3%) 19.2% (-16.1%) $4.26 (-31.5%)
2024 $3.0b (-12.5%) $407.2m (-38.5%) $820.8m (26.8%) 13.5% (-29.7%) $2.71 (-36.4%)
2025 $2.7b (-10.9%) $104.2m (-74.4%) $198.2m (-75.9%) 3.9% (-71.3%) $0.73 (-73.1%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model