Discounted Cash Flow
Murphy USA Inc.
—
—
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
—
%
%
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $11.6b | $221.5m | $337.4m | 1.9% | $5.64 |
| 2017 | $12.8b (10.6%) | $245.3m (10.7%) | $283.6m (-15.9%) | 1.9% (0.1%) | $6.85 (21.5%) |
| 2018 | $14.4b (12.0%) | $213.6m (-12.9%) | $398.7m (40.6%) | 1.5% (-22.2%) | $6.54 (-4.5%) |
| 2019 | $14.0b (-2.3%) | $154.8m (-27.5%) | $313.3m (-21.4%) | 1.1% (-25.8%) | $4.90 (-25.1%) |
| 2020 | $11.3b (-19.7%) | $386.1m (149.4%) | $563.7m (79.9%) | 3.4% (210.8%) | $13.25 (170.4%) |
| 2021 | $17.4b (54.1%) | $396.9m (2.8%) | $737.4m (30.8%) | 2.3% (-33.3%) | $15.14 (14.3%) |
| 2022 | $23.4b (35.1%) | $672.9m (69.5%) | $689.4m (-6.5%) | 2.9% (25.5%) | $28.63 (89.1%) |
| 2023 | $21.5b (-8.2%) | $556.8m (-17.3%) | $448.4m (-35.0%) | 2.6% (-9.9%) | $25.91 (-9.5%) |
| 2024 | $20.2b (-6.0%) | $502.5m (-9.8%) | $389.5m (-13.1%) | 2.5% (-4.0%) | $24.47 (-5.6%) |
| 2025 | $19.4b (-4.2%) | $470.6m (-6.3%) | $374.3m (-3.9%) | 2.4% (-2.2%) | $24.38 (-0.4%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.