Discounted Cash Flow

Neurocrine Biosciences Inc.

NBIX · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $15.0m $-141.1m $-110.3m -940.6% $-1.63
2017 $161.6m (977.5%) $-142.5m (-1.0%) $-101.3m (8.2%) -88.2% (90.6%) $-1.62 (0.6%)
2018 $451.2m (179.2%) $21.1m (114.8%) $76.6m (175.6%) 4.7% (105.3%) $0.23 (114.2%)
2019 $788.1m (74.6%) $37.0m (75.3%) $137.3m (79.4%) 4.7% (0.4%) $0.40 (73.9%)
2020 $1.0b (32.7%) $407.3m (1000.5%) $217.6m (58.5%) 38.9% (729.2%) $4.38 (995.0%)
2021 $1.1b (8.4%) $89.6m (-78.0%) $233.1m (7.1%) 7.9% (-79.7%) $0.95 (-78.3%)
2022 $1.5b (31.3%) $154.5m (72.4%) $322.9m (38.5%) 10.4% (31.3%) $1.61 (69.5%)
2023 $1.9b (26.8%) $249.7m (61.6%) $361.6m (12.0%) 13.2% (27.5%) $2.56 (59.0%)
2024 $2.4b (24.8%) $341.3m (36.7%) $557.2m (54.1%) 14.5% (9.5%) $3.40 (32.8%)
2025 $2.9b (21.4%) $478.6m (40.2%) $748.7m (34.4%) 16.7% (15.5%) $4.81 (41.5%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model