Discounted Cash Flow

NBT Bancorp Inc.

NBTB · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income
Dividends

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $380.2m $78.4m $109.5m 20.6% $1.81
2017 $404.8m (6.5%) $82.2m (4.8%) $136.9m (25.0%) 20.3% (-1.6%) $1.89 (4.4%)
2018 $430.4m (6.3%) $112.6m (37.0%) $147.8m (7.9%) 26.2% (28.9%) $2.58 (36.5%)
2019 $455.6m (5.9%) $121.0m (7.5%) $153.5m (3.9%) 26.6% (1.6%) $2.76 (7.0%)
2020 $462.0m (1.4%) $104.4m (-13.7%) $142.4m (-7.2%) 22.6% (-14.9%) $2.39 (-13.4%)
2021 $478.9m (3.7%) $154.9m (48.4%) $157.6m (10.7%) 32.3% (43.1%) $3.57 (49.4%)
2022 $517.8m (8.1%) $152.0m (-1.9%) $176.2m (11.8%) 29.4% (-9.2%) $3.54 (-0.8%)
2023 $520.4m (0.5%) $118.8m (-21.9%) $148.2m (-15.9%) 22.8% (-22.2%) $2.67 (-24.6%)
2024 $576.9m (10.9%) $140.6m (18.4%) $176.8m (19.3%) 24.4% (6.8%) $2.98 (11.6%)
2025 $697.0m (20.8%) $169.2m (20.3%) $218.9m (23.8%) 24.3% (-0.4%) $3.34 (12.1%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model