Discounted Cash Flow

National Fuel GAS Co.

NFG · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $1.5b $-3 $7.4m -0.0%
2017 $1.6b (8.8%) $3 (196.2%) $233.9m (3059.7%) 0.0% (188.4%)
2018 $1.6b (0.8%) $5 (37.3%) $29.6m (-87.3%) 0.0% (36.2%)
2019 $1.7b (6.3%) $4 (-22.5%) $-94.5m (-419.1%) 0.0% (-27.1%)
2020 $1.5b (-8.7%) $-1 (-140.2%) $24.7m (126.1%) -0.0% (-144.0%)
2021 $1.7b (12.7%) $4 (381.6%) $39.8m (61.5%) 0.0% (349.8%)
2022 $2.2b (25.4%) $6 (54.9%) $695.0k (-98.3%) 0.0% (23.5%)
2023 $2.2b (-0.6%) $5 (-15.9%) $227.2m (32591.7%) 0.0% (-15.5%)
2024 $1.9b (-10.5%) $1 (-83.8%) $134.7m (-40.7%) 0.0% (-81.8%)
2025 $2.3b (17.1%) $6 (576.2%) $187.2m (39.0%) 0.0% (477.4%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model