Discounted Cash Flow

Natural GAS Services Group Inc.

NGS · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $71.7m $6.5m $28.5m 9.0% $0.51
2017 $67.7m (-5.5%) $19.9m (206.9%) $4.0m (-86.1%) 29.3% (224.8%) $1.55 (203.9%)
2018 $36.8m (-45.6%) $426.0k (-97.9%) $426.0k (-89.3%) 1.2% (-96.1%) $0.03 (-98.1%)
2019 $21.7m (-40.9%) $-13.9m (-3354.5%) $-40.5m (-9613.1%) -63.8% (-5609.1%) $-1.06 (-3633.3%)
2020 $7.2m (-66.8%) $1.8m (113.0%) $17.4m (142.9%) 25.0% (139.2%) $0.14 (113.2%)
2021 $8.8m (21.7%) $-9.2m (-607.9%) $2.8m (-83.8%) -104.4% (-517.4%) $-0.70 (-600.0%)
2022 $10.4m (17.8%) $-569.0k (93.8%) $-569.0k (-120.2%) -5.5% (94.7%) $-0.05 (92.9%)
2023 $15.0m (44.9%) $4.7m (934.3%) $4.7m (934.3%) 31.6% (675.9%) $0.39 (880.0%)
2024 $156.7m (944.4%) $17.2m (262.9%) $-5.4m (-214.4%) 11.0% (-65.3%) $1.39 (256.4%)
2025 $172.3m (9.9%) $19.9m (15.7%) $-58.6m (-978.3%) 11.6% (5.2%) $1.59 (14.4%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model