Discounted Cash Flow
Natural Grocers By Vitamin Cottage, Inc.
—
—
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
—
%
%
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $705.5m | $11.5m | $-24.9m | 1.6% | $0.51 |
| 2017 | $769.0m (9.0%) | $6.9m (-39.9%) | $-382.0k (98.5%) | 0.9% (-44.9%) | $0.31 (-39.2%) |
| 2018 | $849.0m (10.4%) | $12.7m (83.7%) | $19.1m (5112.0%) | 1.5% (66.4%) | $0.57 (83.9%) |
| 2019 | $903.6m (6.4%) | $9.4m (-25.6%) | $7.4m (-61.6%) | 1.0% (-30.1%) | $0.42 (-26.3%) |
| 2020 | $1.0b (14.7%) | $20.0m (112.5%) | $39.8m (440.7%) | 1.9% (85.2%) | $0.89 (111.9%) |
| 2021 | $1.1b (1.8%) | $20.6m (2.9%) | $27.5m (-30.7%) | 1.9% (1.0%) | $0.91 (2.2%) |
| 2022 | $1.1b (3.2%) | $21.4m (3.8%) | $11.7m (-57.7%) | 2.0% (0.6%) | $0.94 (3.3%) |
| 2023 | $1.1b (4.7%) | $23.2m (8.8%) | $28.0m (140.6%) | 2.0% (3.9%) | $1.02 (8.5%) |
| 2024 | $1.2b (8.9%) | $33.9m (46.0%) | $36.2m (29.2%) | 2.7% (34.1%) | $1.49 (46.1%) |
| 2025 | $1.3b (7.2%) | $46.4m (36.9%) | $24.1m (-33.5%) | 3.5% (27.7%) | $2.02 (35.6%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.