Discounted Cash Flow

National Healthcare Corp.

NHC · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $5.7m $50.5m $28.3m 885.9% $3.34
2017 $6.5m (13.5%) $56.2m (11.2%) $62.1m (119.6%) 868.2% (-2.0%) $3.70 (10.8%)
2018 $980.3m (15042.9%) $59.0m (4.9%) $68.7m (10.5%) 6.0% (-99.3%) $3.87 (4.6%)
2019 $996.4m (1.6%) $68.2m (15.7%) $73.7m (7.3%) 6.8% (13.8%) $4.47 (15.5%)
2020 $1.0b (3.2%) $41.9m (-38.6%) $181.4m (146.1%) 4.1% (-40.5%) $2.74 (-38.7%)
2021 $1.1b (4.5%) $138.6m (231.0%) $23.0m (-87.3%) 12.9% (216.8%) $9.03 (229.6%)
2022 $1.1b (1.1%) $22.4m (-83.8%) $-21.5m (-193.3%) 2.1% (-84.0%) $1.46 (-83.8%)
2023 $1.1b (5.1%) $66.8m (197.6%) $83.3m (488.3%) 5.9% (183.1%) $4.36 (198.6%)
2024 $1.3b (14.5%) $101.9m (52.6%) $79.7m (-4.3%) 7.8% (33.2%) $6.62 (51.8%)
2025 $1.5b (16.1%) $120.0m (17.7%) $148.6m (86.5%) 7.9% (1.4%) $7.76 (17.2%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model