Discounted Cash Flow
National Health Investors Inc. REIT
—
—
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
—
%
%
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $248.5m | $151.5m | $-217.5m | 61.0% | $3.88 |
| 2017 | $278.7m (12.1%) | $159.4m (5.2%) | $21.5m (109.9%) | 57.2% (-6.2%) | $3.90 (0.5%) |
| 2018 | $294.6m (5.7%) | $154.3m (-3.2%) | $60.2m (179.7%) | 52.4% (-8.4%) | $3.68 (-5.6%) |
| 2019 | $318.1m (8.0%) | $160.5m (4.0%) | $3.8m (-93.7%) | 50.4% (-3.7%) | $3.70 (0.5%) |
| 2020 | $332.8m (4.6%) | $185.1m (15.4%) | $115.4m (2962.5%) | 55.6% (10.3%) | $4.14 (11.9%) |
| 2021 | $298.7m (-10.2%) | $111.8m (-39.6%) | $160.5m (39.1%) | 37.4% (-32.7%) | $2.45 (-40.8%) |
| 2022 | $35.8m (-88.0%) | $66.4m (-40.6%) | $174.3m (8.6%) | 185.5% (395.6%) | $1.48 (-39.6%) |
| 2023 | $48.8m (36.4%) | $135.7m (104.3%) | $134.9m (-22.6%) | 277.9% (49.8%) | $3.13 (111.5%) |
| 2024 | $54.4m (11.5%) | $138.0m (1.7%) | $49.8m (-63.1%) | 253.6% (-8.8%) | $3.14 (0.3%) |
| 2025 | $80.1m (47.1%) | $142.2m (3.0%) | $-57.5m (-215.3%) | 177.6% (-30.0%) | $3.03 (-3.5%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.