Discounted Cash Flow

NMI Holdings, Inc.

NMIH · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $123.8m $65.8m $60.5m 53.2% $1.11
2017 $182.7m (47.6%) $22.1m (-66.5%) $59.3m (-2.0%) 12.1% (-77.3%) $0.37 (-66.7%)
2018 $275.0m (50.5%) $107.9m (389.5%) $137.8m (132.6%) 39.2% (225.2%) $1.66 (348.6%)
2019 $378.8m (37.7%) $172.0m (59.3%) $198.2m (43.8%) 45.4% (15.7%) $2.54 (53.0%)
2020 $433.3m (14.4%) $171.6m (-0.2%) $240.4m (21.3%) 39.6% (-12.8%) $2.20 (-13.4%)
2021 $485.1m (12.0%) $231.1m (34.7%) $313.5m (30.4%) 47.6% (20.3%) $2.70 (22.7%)
2022 $523.3m (7.9%) $292.9m (26.7%) $302.8m (-3.4%) 56.0% (17.5%) $3.45 (27.8%)
2023 $579.0m (10.6%) $322.1m (10.0%) $333.3m (10.1%) 55.6% (-0.6%) $3.91 (13.3%)
2024 $651.0m (12.4%) $360.1m (11.8%) $386.7m (16.0%) 55.3% (-0.6%) $4.51 (15.3%)
2025 $706.4m (8.5%) $388.9m (8.0%) $412.5m (6.7%) 55.1% (-0.5%) $5.01 (11.1%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model