Discounted Cash Flow

Nomura Holdings Inc. ADR

NMR · Based on 10 years of SEC filings · Converted from JPY to USD

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2017 $1.7t $1.5b $6.2b 0.1% $67.29
2018 $2.0t (15.0%) $1.4b (-8.5%) $-4.6b (-173.7%) 0.1% (-20.4%) $63.13 (-6.2%)
2019 $694.4b (-64.8%) $-630.2m (-145.8%) $-4.3b (6.9%) -0.1% (-230.1%) $-29.90 (-147.4%)
2020 $700.1b (0.8%) $1.4b (316.0%) $-1.4b (67.3%) 0.2% (314.3%) $67.76 (326.6%)
2021 $759.9b (8.5%) $960.6m (-29.4%) $3.4b (345.1%) 0.1% (-35.0%) $50.11 (-26.0%)
2022 $790.8b (4.1%) $897.2m (-6.6%) $897.2m (-73.8%) 0.1% (-10.3%) $46.68 (-6.8%)
2023 $707.9b (-10.5%) $582.1m (-35.1%) $-5.4b (-705.6%) 0.1% (-27.5%) $30.86 (-33.9%)
2024 $896.5b (26.6%) $1.0b (78.8%) $-82.5m (98.5%) 0.1% (41.2%) $54.97 (78.1%)
2025 $1.1t (19.2%) $2.1b (105.4%) $-5.4b (-6508.2%) 0.2% (72.3%) $115.30 (109.8%)
2026 $1.2t (12.7%) $2.3b (6.3%) $-7.5b (-37.8%) 0.2% (-5.7%) $123.08 (6.7%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

SEC filings report in JPY. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model