Discounted Cash Flow

Nelnet Inc.

NNI · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $760.7m $256.8m $257.7m 33.7% $6.02
2017 $770.4m (1.3%) $173.2m (-32.6%) $71.5m (-72.2%) 22.5% (-33.4%) $4.14 (-31.2%)
2018 $924.3m (20.0%) $227.9m (31.6%) $145.9m (104.0%) 24.7% (9.7%) $5.57 (34.5%)
2019 $948.7m (2.6%) $141.8m (-37.8%) $206.4m (41.5%) 14.9% (-39.4%) $3.54 (-36.4%)
2020 $619.7m (-34.7%) $352.4m (148.5%) $99.5m (-51.8%) 56.9% (280.5%) $9.02 (154.8%)
2021 $523.8m (-15.5%) $393.3m (11.6%) $485.9m (388.3%) 75.1% (32.0%) $10.20 (13.1%)
2022 $742.8m (41.8%) $407.3m (3.6%) $624.6m (28.5%) 54.8% (-27.0%) $10.83 (6.2%)
2023 $1.1b (49.4%) $91.5m (-77.5%) $358.9m (-42.5%) 8.2% (-85.0%) $2.45 (-77.4%)
2024 $973.4m (-12.3%) $184.0m (101.1%) $642.0m (78.9%) 18.9% (129.2%) $5.02 (104.9%)
2025 $851.5m (-12.5%) $428.5m (132.8%) $396.7m (-38.2%) 50.3% (166.2%) $11.79 (134.9%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model