Discounted Cash Flow
Noah Holdings Ltd. ADR
—
—
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
—
%
%
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $362.0m | $13.7m | $12.5m | 3.8% | $3.29 |
| 2017 | $434.5m (20.0%) | $17.4m (26.5%) | $10.8m (-13.2%) | 4.0% (5.4%) | $4.15 (26.1%) |
| 2018 | $478.5m (10.1%) | $17.5m (0.6%) | $19.4m (79.3%) | 3.6% (-8.6%) | $4.02 (-3.1%) |
| 2019 | $487.2m (1.8%) | $17.6m (0.9%) | $26.0m (34.0%) | 3.6% (-0.9%) | $3.90 (-3.0%) |
| 2020 | $506.6m (4.0%) | $-16.9m (-195.9%) | $16.9m (-35.0%) | -3.3% (-192.2%) | $-3.68 (-194.4%) |
| 2021 | $673.7m (33.0%) | $30.5m (280.6%) | $-17.4m (-203.0%) | 4.5% (235.8%) | $6.14 (266.8%) |
| 2022 | $449.5m (-33.3%) | $21.0m (-31.3%) | $12.2m (170.3%) | 4.7% (2.9%) | $4.14 (-32.6%) |
| 2023 | $464.0m (3.2%) | $21.0m (0.4%) | $24.2m (97.7%) | 4.5% (-2.7%) | $0.41 (-90.1%) |
| 2024 | $356.3m (-23.2%) | $9.6m (-54.2%) | $6.2m (-74.4%) | 2.7% (-40.3%) | $0.19 (-53.7%) |
| 2025 | $373.3m (4.8%) | $11.8m (22.7%) | $17.8m (188.2%) | 3.2% (17.1%) | $0.23 (21.1%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in CNY. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.