Discounted Cash Flow

Northern OIL & GAS Inc.

NOG · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $144.9m $-293.5m $101.7m -202.5% $-4.80
2017 $209.3m (44.5%) $-9.2m (96.9%) $73.0m (-28.2%) -4.4% (97.8%) $-0.15 (96.9%)
2018 $678.9m (224.3%) $143.7m (1662.9%) $244.2m (234.7%) 21.2% (581.9%) $0.61 (506.7%)
2019 $472.4m (-30.4%) $-76.3m (-153.1%) $338.6m (38.7%) -16.2% (-176.3%) $-0.20 (-132.8%)
2020 $552.2m (16.9%) $-906.0m (-1087.2%) $331.4m (-2.1%) -164.1% (-915.6%) $-21.55 (-10675.0%)
2021 $496.9m (-10.0%) $6.4m (100.7%) $6.4m (-98.1%) 1.3% (100.8%) $-0.13 (99.4%)
2022 $2.0b (299.6%) $773.2m (12055.9%) $923.8m (14423.5%) 38.9% (2941.7%) $9.26 (7223.1%)
2023 $2.2b (9.1%) $923.0m (19.4%) $1.2b (28.0%) 42.6% (9.4%) $10.09 (9.0%)
2024 $2.2b (2.7%) $520.3m (-43.6%) $1.4b (19.2%) 23.4% (-45.1%) $5.21 (-48.4%)
2025 $2.1b (-5.9%) $38.8m (-92.6%) $38.8m (-97.2%) 1.9% (-92.1%) $0.40 (-92.3%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model