Discounted Cash Flow

Norfolk Southern Corp.

NSC · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $9.9b $1.7b $1.1b 16.9% $5.66
2017 $10.6b (6.7%) $5.4b (224.0%) $1.5b (33.4%) 51.2% (203.6%) $18.76 (231.4%)
2018 $11.5b (8.6%) $2.7b (-50.7%) $1.8b (16.0%) 23.3% (-54.6%) $9.58 (-48.9%)
2019 $11.3b (-1.4%) $2.7b (2.1%) $1.9b (5.5%) 24.1% (3.6%) $10.32 (7.7%)
2020 $9.8b (-13.3%) $2.0b (-26.0%) $2.1b (14.4%) 20.6% (-14.7%) $7.88 (-23.6%)
2021 $11.1b (13.8%) $3.0b (49.3%) $2.8b (30.0%) 27.0% (31.2%) $12.16 (54.3%)
2022 $12.7b (14.4%) $3.3b (8.8%) $2.3b (-18.3%) 25.7% (-4.9%) $13.92 (14.5%)
2023 $12.2b (-4.6%) $1.8b (-44.1%) $830.0m (-63.5%) 15.0% (-41.4%) $8.04 (-42.2%)
2024 $12.1b (-0.3%) $2.6b (43.5%) $1.7b (101.3%) 21.6% (43.9%) $11.58 (44.0%)
2025 $12.2b (0.5%) $2.9b (9.6%) $2.2b (29.1%) 23.6% (9.1%) $12.76 (10.2%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model