Discounted Cash Flow
Napco Security Technologies, Inc.
—
—
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
—
%
%
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $82.5m | $5.8m | $8.5m | 7.0% | $0.31 |
| 2017 | $87.4m (5.9%) | $5.6m (-3.0%) | $1.0m (-87.8%) | 6.4% (-8.4%) | $0.30 (-3.2%) |
| 2018 | $91.7m (5.0%) | $7.6m (36.6%) | $6.6m (536.8%) | 8.3% (30.1%) | $0.41 (36.7%) |
| 2019 | $102.9m (12.2%) | $12.2m (59.8%) | $6.7m (1.2%) | 11.9% (42.4%) | $0.66 (61.0%) |
| 2020 | $101.4m (-1.5%) | $8.5m (-30.3%) | $8.7m (30.4%) | 8.4% (-29.2%) | $0.46 (-30.3%) |
| 2021 | $114.0m (12.5%) | $15.4m (80.9%) | $22.0m (152.9%) | 13.5% (60.8%) | $0.42 (-8.7%) |
| 2022 | $143.6m (25.9%) | $19.6m (27.2%) | $6.8m (-68.8%) | 13.6% (1.0%) | $0.53 (26.2%) |
| 2023 | $170.0m (18.4%) | $27.1m (38.4%) | $21.7m (217.3%) | 16.0% (16.9%) | $0.74 (39.6%) |
| 2024 | $188.8m (11.1%) | $49.8m (83.6%) | $43.8m (101.4%) | 26.4% (65.3%) | $1.35 (82.4%) |
| 2025 | $181.6m (-3.8%) | $43.4m (-12.9%) | $51.4m (17.4%) | 23.9% (-9.4%) | $1.20 (-11.1%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.