Discounted Cash Flow
Natera, Inc.
—
—
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
—
%
%
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $217.1m | $-95.8m | $-97.0m | -44.1% | $-1.86 |
| 2017 | $210.9m (-2.8%) | $-136.3m (-42.3%) | $-106.7m (-9.9%) | -64.6% (-46.5%) | $-2.56 (-37.6%) |
| 2018 | $257.7m (22.1%) | $-128.2m (6.0%) | $-74.5m (30.2%) | -49.7% (23.0%) | $-2.22 (13.3%) |
| 2019 | $302.3m (17.3%) | $-124.8m (2.6%) | $-68.4m (8.1%) | -41.3% (17.0%) | $-1.79 (19.4%) |
| 2020 | $391.0m (29.3%) | $-229.7m (-84.0%) | $-202.1m (-195.4%) | -58.8% (-42.3%) | $-2.84 (-58.7%) |
| 2021 | $625.5m (60.0%) | $-471.7m (-105.3%) | $-376.3m (-86.2%) | -75.4% (-28.4%) | $-5.21 (-83.5%) |
| 2022 | $820.2m (31.1%) | $-547.8m (-16.1%) | $-479.2m (-27.4%) | -66.8% (11.4%) | $-5.57 (-6.9%) |
| 2023 | $1.1b (32.0%) | $-434.8m (20.6%) | $-286.2m (40.3%) | -40.2% (39.9%) | $-3.78 (32.1%) |
| 2024 | $1.7b (56.7%) | $-190.4m (56.2%) | $69.2m (124.2%) | -11.2% (72.1%) | $-1.53 (59.5%) |
| 2025 | $2.3b (35.9%) | $-208.2m (-9.3%) | $109.1m (57.6%) | -9.0% (19.6%) | $-1.52 (0.7%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.