Discounted Cash Flow

Nvidia Corp.

NVDA · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2017 $6.9b $1.7b $1.7b 24.1% $3.08
2018 $9.7b (40.6%) $3.0b (82.9%) $3.5b (109.4%) 31.4% (30.1%) $5.09 (65.3%)
2019 $11.7b (20.6%) $4.1b (35.9%) $3.7b (6.9%) 35.3% (12.7%) $6.81 (33.8%)
2020 $10.9b (-6.8%) $2.8b (-32.5%) $4.8b (27.2%) 25.6% (-27.5%) $4.59 (-32.6%)
2021 $16.7b (52.7%) $4.3b (54.9%) $5.8b (22.3%) 26.0% (1.4%) $7.02 (52.9%)
2022 $26.9b (61.4%) $9.8b (125.1%) $9.1b (56.4%) 36.2% (39.5%) $3.91 (-44.3%)
2023 $27.0b (0.2%) $4.4b (-55.2%) $3.8b (-58.2%) 16.2% (-55.3%) $1.76 (-55.0%)
2024 $60.9b (125.9%) $29.8b (581.3%) $27.0b (609.8%) 48.8% (201.7%) $12.05 (584.7%)
2025 $130.5b (114.2%) $72.9b (144.9%) $60.9b (125.2%) 55.8% (14.3%) $2.97 (-75.4%)
2026 $215.9b (65.5%) $120.1b (64.7%) $96.7b (58.9%) 55.6% (-0.4%) $4.93 (66.0%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model