Discounted Cash Flow

Novo Nordisk A S ADR

NVO · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $111.8b $47.8b $-12.2b 42.8% $14.99
2017 $111.7b (-0.1%) $48.7b (1.8%) $24.3b (300.1%) 43.6% (1.9%) $15.42 (2.9%)
2018 $111.8b (0.1%) $47.6b (-2.2%) $29.0b (19.4%) 42.6% (-2.3%) $15.96 (3.5%)
2019 $122.0b (9.1%) $48.6b (2.0%) $31.4b (8.3%) 39.8% (-6.5%) $16.41 (2.8%)
2020 $126.9b (4.0%) $53.1b (9.4%) $35.1b (11.6%) 41.9% (5.2%) $18.05 (10.0%)
2021 $140.8b (10.9%) $59.1b (11.2%) $35.6b (1.3%) 42.0% (0.3%) $20.79 (15.2%)
2022 $177.0b (25.7%) $69.1b (16.9%) $64.1b (80.4%) 39.0% (-7.0%) $24.51 (17.9%)
2023 $232.3b (31.3%) $104.7b (51.6%) $70.0b (9.2%) 45.1% (15.5%) $18.67 (-23.8%)
2024 $290.4b (25.0%) $127.2b (21.5%) $69.7b (-0.5%) 43.8% (-2.8%) $22.67 (21.4%)
2025 $309.1b (6.4%) $130.5b (2.6%) $29.0b (-58.4%) 42.2% (-3.6%) $23.06 (1.7%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model