Discounted Cash Flow

NVR Inc.

NVR · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $5.8b $425.3m $362.1m 7.3% $110.53
2017 $6.3b (8.3%) $537.5m (26.4%) $548.6m (51.5%) 8.5% (16.7%) $144.00 (30.3%)
2018 $7.2b (13.6%) $797.2m (48.3%) $703.5m (28.2%) 11.1% (30.6%) $219.58 (52.5%)
2019 $7.4b (3.1%) $878.5m (10.2%) $843.8m (20.0%) 11.9% (6.8%) $241.31 (9.9%)
2020 $7.5b (2.0%) $901.2m (2.6%) $909.1m (7.7%) 12.0% (0.6%) $244.11 (1.2%)
2021 $9.0b (18.8%) $1.2b (37.2%) $1.2b (34.7%) 13.8% (15.5%) $345.37 (41.5%)
2022 $10.5b (17.6%) $1.7b (39.5%) $1.9b (51.2%) 16.4% (18.6%) $525.20 (52.1%)
2023 $9.5b (-9.6%) $1.6b (-7.8%) $1.5b (-20.4%) 16.7% (2.0%) $491.52 (-6.4%)
2024 $10.5b (10.6%) $1.7b (5.7%) $1.3b (-8.7%) 16.0% (-4.4%) $540.88 (10.0%)
2025 $10.3b (-1.9%) $1.3b (-20.3%) $1.1b (-18.5%) 13.0% (-18.8%) $462.00 (-14.6%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model