Discounted Cash Flow
Origin Bancorp, Inc.
—
—
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
—
%
%
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | $130.3m | $14.7m | $59.0m | 11.3% | $0.51 |
| 2018 | $153.5m (17.8%) | $51.6m (251.8%) | $72.3m (22.7%) | 33.6% (198.7%) | $2.21 (333.3%) |
| 2019 | $173.7m (13.2%) | $53.9m (4.4%) | $50.4m (-30.3%) | 31.0% (-7.8%) | $2.30 (4.1%) |
| 2020 | $191.5m (10.3%) | $36.4m (-32.5%) | $-6.3m (-112.5%) | 19.0% (-38.8%) | $1.56 (-32.2%) |
| 2021 | $216.3m (12.9%) | $108.5m (198.6%) | $166.5m (2737.8%) | 50.2% (164.4%) | $4.63 (196.8%) |
| 2022 | $275.3m (27.3%) | $87.7m (-19.2%) | $137.2m (-17.6%) | 31.9% (-36.5%) | $3.29 (-28.9%) |
| 2023 | $299.6m (8.8%) | $83.8m (-4.5%) | $103.1m (-24.9%) | 28.0% (-12.2%) | $2.72 (-17.3%) |
| 2024 | $300.4m (0.3%) | $76.5m (-8.7%) | $86.4m (-16.2%) | 25.5% (-9.0%) | $2.46 (-9.6%) |
| 2025 | $331.0m (10.2%) | $75.2m (-1.7%) | $151.1m (74.8%) | 22.7% (-10.8%) | $2.42 (-1.6%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.