Discounted Cash Flow

Origin Bancorp, Inc.

OBK · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2017 $130.3m $14.7m $59.0m 11.3% $0.51
2018 $153.5m (17.8%) $51.6m (251.8%) $72.3m (22.7%) 33.6% (198.7%) $2.21 (333.3%)
2019 $173.7m (13.2%) $53.9m (4.4%) $50.4m (-30.3%) 31.0% (-7.8%) $2.30 (4.1%)
2020 $191.5m (10.3%) $36.4m (-32.5%) $-6.3m (-112.5%) 19.0% (-38.8%) $1.56 (-32.2%)
2021 $216.3m (12.9%) $108.5m (198.6%) $166.5m (2737.8%) 50.2% (164.4%) $4.63 (196.8%)
2022 $275.3m (27.3%) $87.7m (-19.2%) $137.2m (-17.6%) 31.9% (-36.5%) $3.29 (-28.9%)
2023 $299.6m (8.8%) $83.8m (-4.5%) $103.1m (-24.9%) 28.0% (-12.2%) $2.72 (-17.3%)
2024 $300.4m (0.3%) $76.5m (-8.7%) $86.4m (-16.2%) 25.5% (-9.0%) $2.46 (-9.6%)
2025 $331.0m (10.2%) $75.2m (-1.7%) $151.1m (74.8%) 22.7% (-10.8%) $2.42 (-1.6%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model