Discounted Cash Flow

Orange County Bancorp, Inc. /De/

OBT · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2020 $53.5m $11.7m $10.7m 21.8% $2.59
2021 $64.4m (20.5%) $21.3m (82.3%) $18.4m (72.4%) 33.0% (51.2%) $4.28 (65.3%)
2022 $84.2m (30.7%) $24.4m (14.5%) $28.9m (57.6%) 28.9% (-12.4%) $4.33 (1.2%)
2023 $117.8m (39.8%) $29.5m (21.0%) $41.0m (41.6%) 25.0% (-13.5%) $5.24 (21.0%)
2024 $127.2m (8.0%) $27.9m (-5.4%) $32.9m (-19.8%) 21.9% (-12.4%) $2.47 (-52.9%)
2025 $135.0m (6.1%) $41.6m (49.2%) $41.3m (25.7%) 30.8% (40.7%) $3.33 (34.8%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model