Discounted Cash Flow

ONE Gas, Inc.

OGS · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $1.4b $140.1m $-27.5m 9.8% $2.67
2017 $1.5b (7.9%) $163.0m (16.3%) $-102.6m (-272.9%) 10.6% (7.9%) $3.10 (16.1%)
2018 $1.6b (6.1%) $172.2m (5.7%) $73.2m (171.4%) 10.5% (-0.4%) $3.27 (5.5%)
2019 $1.7b (1.2%) $186.7m (8.4%) $-107.0m (-246.1%) 11.3% (7.2%) $3.53 (8.0%)
2020 $1.5b (-7.4%) $196.4m (5.2%) $-106.8m (0.1%) 12.8% (13.6%) $3.70 (4.8%)
2021 $1.8b (18.2%) $206.4m (5.1%) $-2.0b (-1800.8%) 11.4% (-11.1%) $3.85 (4.1%)
2022 $2.6b (42.5%) $221.7m (7.4%) $961.4m (147.3%) 8.6% (-24.6%) $4.09 (6.2%)
2023 $1.1b (-56.0%) $231.2m (4.3%) $272.9m (-71.6%) 20.4% (137.0%) $4.16 (1.7%)
2024 $778.3m (-31.4%) $222.8m (-3.6%) $-334.8m (-222.7%) 28.6% (40.5%) $3.92 (-5.8%)
2025 $998.9m (28.3%) $264.2m (18.6%) $-128.4m (61.6%) 26.5% (-7.6%) $4.39 (12.0%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model