Discounted Cash Flow

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc.

OLLI · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2017 $890.3m $59.8m $50.6m 6.7% $0.99
2018 $1.1b (21.0%) $127.6m (113.5%) $76.7m (51.3%) 11.8% (76.5%) $2.08 (110.1%)
2019 $1.2b (15.3%) $135.0m (5.8%) $51.9m (-32.3%) 10.9% (-8.2%) $2.16 (3.8%)
2020 $1.4b (13.4%) $141.1m (4.5%) $28.4m (-45.3%) 10.0% (-7.9%) $2.23 (3.2%)
2021 $1.8b (28.4%) $242.7m (72.0%) $330.7m (1066.0%) 13.4% (33.9%) $3.75 (68.2%)
2022 $1.8b (-3.1%) $157.5m (-35.1%) $10.0m (-97.0%) 9.0% (-33.1%) $2.44 (-34.9%)
2023 $1.8b (4.2%) $102.8m (-34.7%) $62.7m (524.0%) 5.6% (-37.4%) $1.64 (-32.8%)
2024 $2.1b (15.1%) $181.4m (76.5%) $130.1m (107.6%) 8.6% (53.4%) $2.94 (79.3%)
2025 $2.3b (8.0%) $199.8m (10.1%) $106.9m (-17.8%) 8.8% (1.9%) $3.26 (10.9%)
2026 $2.6b (16.6%) $240.6m (20.4%) $194.7m (82.1%) 9.1% (3.3%) $3.92 (20.2%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model