Discounted Cash Flow
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc.
—
—
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
—
%
%
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | $890.3m | $59.8m | $50.6m | 6.7% | $0.99 |
| 2018 | $1.1b (21.0%) | $127.6m (113.5%) | $76.7m (51.3%) | 11.8% (76.5%) | $2.08 (110.1%) |
| 2019 | $1.2b (15.3%) | $135.0m (5.8%) | $51.9m (-32.3%) | 10.9% (-8.2%) | $2.16 (3.8%) |
| 2020 | $1.4b (13.4%) | $141.1m (4.5%) | $28.4m (-45.3%) | 10.0% (-7.9%) | $2.23 (3.2%) |
| 2021 | $1.8b (28.4%) | $242.7m (72.0%) | $330.7m (1066.0%) | 13.4% (33.9%) | $3.75 (68.2%) |
| 2022 | $1.8b (-3.1%) | $157.5m (-35.1%) | $10.0m (-97.0%) | 9.0% (-33.1%) | $2.44 (-34.9%) |
| 2023 | $1.8b (4.2%) | $102.8m (-34.7%) | $62.7m (524.0%) | 5.6% (-37.4%) | $1.64 (-32.8%) |
| 2024 | $2.1b (15.1%) | $181.4m (76.5%) | $130.1m (107.6%) | 8.6% (53.4%) | $2.94 (79.3%) |
| 2025 | $2.3b (8.0%) | $199.8m (10.1%) | $106.9m (-17.8%) | 8.8% (1.9%) | $3.26 (10.9%) |
| 2026 | $2.6b (16.6%) | $240.6m (20.4%) | $194.7m (82.1%) | 9.1% (3.3%) | $3.92 (20.2%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.