Discounted Cash Flow

OLD Republic International Corp.

ORI · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $5.9b $466.9m $637.3m 7.9% $1.80
2017 $6.3b (6.1%) $560.5m (20.0%) $452.8m (-29.0%) 8.9% (13.1%) $2.14 (18.9%)
2018 $6.0b (-3.9%) $370.5m (-33.9%) $760.5m (68.0%) 6.2% (-31.2%) $1.26 (-41.1%)
2019 $7.2b (19.8%) $1.1b (185.1%) $936.2m (23.1%) 14.6% (138.0%) $3.52 (179.4%)
2020 $7.2b (-0.7%) $558.6m (-47.1%) $1.2b (26.6%) 7.8% (-46.8%) $1.87 (-46.9%)
2021 $9.3b (30.4%) $1.5b (174.7%) $1.3b (10.7%) 16.4% (110.7%) $5.08 (171.7%)
2022 $8.1b (-13.5%) $686.4m (-55.3%) $1.2b (-10.8%) 8.5% (-48.3%) $2.28 (-55.1%)
2023 $7.3b (-10.2%) $598.6m (-12.8%) $880.3m (-24.8%) 8.2% (-2.9%) $2.12 (-7.0%)
2024 $8.2b (13.4%) $852.7m (42.4%) $1.2b (40.1%) 10.4% (25.6%) $3.30 (55.7%)
2025 $9.1b (11.0%) $935.4m (9.7%) $1.2b (-5.6%) 10.2% (-1.2%) $3.82 (15.8%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model