Discounted Cash Flow

Orrstown Financial Services Inc.

ORRF · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $36.5m $6.6m $2.2m 18.1% $0.82
2017 $43.4m (18.7%) $8.1m (22.1%) $13.7m (517.5%) 18.7% (2.8%) $1.00 (22.0%)
2018 $51.4m (18.4%) $12.8m (58.3%) $17.7m (29.2%) 24.9% (33.6%) $1.53 (53.0%)
2019 $69.3m (34.9%) $16.9m (32.2%) $6.2m (-65.1%) 24.4% (-2.0%) $1.63 (6.5%)
2020 $17.1m (-75.3%) $26.5m (56.4%) $28.9m (367.2%) 154.6% (533.0%) $2.42 (48.5%)
2021 $18.9m (10.6%) $32.9m (24.3%) $39.6m (37.0%) 173.7% (12.3%) $3.00 (24.0%)
2022 $19.5m (2.8%) $22.0m (-33.0%) $35.3m (-10.8%) 113.2% (-34.8%) $2.09 (-30.3%)
2023 $19.5m (0.1%) $35.7m (61.8%) $41.4m (17.3%) 183.1% (61.7%) $3.45 (65.1%)
2024 $27.3m (40.2%) $22.1m (-38.2%) $33.4m (-19.4%) 80.7% (-55.9%) $1.49 (-56.8%)
2025 $37.1m (36.0%) $80.9m (266.7%) $70.5m (111.2%) 217.7% (169.6%) $4.21 (182.6%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model