Discounted Cash Flow

OLD Second Bancorp Inc.

OSBC · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $15.7m $25.3m $0.53
2017 $15.1m (-3.5%) $36.0m (42.7%) $0.51 (-3.8%)
2018 $34.0m (124.7%) $53.0m (47.1%) $1.14 (123.5%)
2019 $39.5m (16.0%) $48.3m (-9.0%) $1.32 (15.8%)
2020 $27.8m (-29.5%) $22.1m (-54.3%) $0.94 (-28.8%)
2021 $20.0m (-28.0%) $29.0m (31.5%) $0.66 (-29.8%)
2022 $67.4m (236.3%) $93.0m (220.6%) $1.51 (128.8%)
2023 $91.7m (36.1%) $104.0m (11.8%) $2.05 (35.8%)
2024 $85.3m (-7.0%) $120.7m (16.1%) $1.90 (-7.3%)
2025 $80.3m (-5.8%) $117.8m (-2.5%) $1.64 (-13.7%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model