Discounted Cash Flow

Penske Automotive Group, Inc.

PAG · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $20.1b $342.9m $1.6m 1.7% $3.99
2017 $21.4b (6.3%) $613.3m (78.9%) $500.0k (-68.8%) 2.9% (68.2%) $7.14 (78.9%)
2018 $22.8b (6.5%) $471.0m (-23.2%) $500.0k (0.0%) 2.1% (-27.9%) $5.53 (-22.5%)
2019 $23.2b (1.7%) $435.8m (-7.5%) $300.0k (-40.0%) 1.9% (-9.0%) $5.28 (-4.5%)
2020 $20.4b (-11.8%) $543.6m (24.7%) $300.0k (0.0%) 2.7% (41.4%) $6.74 (27.7%)
2021 $25.6b (25.0%) $1.2b (118.5%) $1.3m (333.3%) 4.6% (74.8%) $14.89 (120.9%)
2022 $27.8b (8.8%) $1.4b (16.2%) $1.2b (90400.0%) 5.0% (6.7%) $18.55 (24.6%)
2023 $29.5b (6.2%) $1.1b (-23.7%) $759.2m (-35.5%) 3.6% (-28.1%) $15.50 (-16.4%)
2024 $30.5b (3.1%) $918.9m (-12.8%) $852.8m (12.3%) 3.0% (-15.4%) $13.74 (-11.4%)
2025 $31.8b (4.4%) $935.4m (1.8%) $650.5m (-23.7%) 2.9% (-2.5%) $14.13 (2.8%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model