Discounted Cash Flow

Plains GP Holdings L.P.

PAGP · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $20.2b $94.0m $-623.0m 0.5% $0.94
2017 $26.2b (29.9%) $-731.0m (-877.7%) $1.5b (336.3%) -2.8% (-698.5%) $-5.03 (-635.1%)
2018 $34.1b (29.9%) $334.0m (145.7%) $970.0m (-34.1%) 1.0% (135.2%) $2.12 (142.1%)
2019 $33.7b (-1.1%) $331.0m (-0.9%) $1.3b (36.0%) 1.0% (0.2%) $1.97 (-7.1%)
2020 $23.3b (-30.8%) $-568.0m (-271.6%) $772.0m (-41.5%) -2.4% (-348.1%) $-3.06 (-255.3%)
2021 $42.1b (80.7%) $60.0m (110.6%) $1.7b (114.4%) 0.1% (105.8%) $0.31 (110.1%)
2022 $57.3b (36.3%) $168.0m (180.0%) $1.9b (17.8%) 0.3% (105.5%) $0.86 (177.4%)
2023 $48.7b (-15.1%) $198.0m (17.9%) $2.2b (11.0%) 0.4% (38.7%) $1.01 (17.4%)
2024 $50.1b (2.8%) $103.0m (-48.0%) $1.9b (-13.8%) 0.2% (-49.4%) $0.52 (-48.5%)
2025 $44.3b (-11.6%) $260.0m (152.4%) $2.3b (22.7%) 0.6% (185.6%) $1.31 (151.9%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model