Discounted Cash Flow

Palo Alto Networks Inc.

PANW · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $1.4b $-225.9m $658.1m -16.4%
2017 $1.8b (27.8%) $-216.6m (4.1%) $868.5m (32.0%) -12.3% (25.0%)
2018 $2.3b (29.0%) $-147.9m (31.7%) $1.0b (19.4%) -6.5% (47.1%)
2019 $2.9b (27.6%) $-81.9m (44.6%) $-81.9m (-107.9%) -2.8% (56.6%)
2020 $3.4b (17.5%) $-267.0m (-226.0%) $-145.1m (-77.2%) -7.8% (-177.3%)
2021 $4.3b (24.9%) $-498.9m (-86.9%) $-455.9m (-214.2%) -11.7% (-49.6%) $-5.18
2022 $5.5b (29.3%) $-267.0m (46.5%) $-287.0m (37.0%) -4.9% (58.6%) $-2.71 (47.7%)
2023 $6.9b (25.3%) $439.7m (264.7%) $-2.7b (-834.8%) 6.4% (231.4%) $1.45 (153.5%)
2024 $8.0b (16.5%) $2.6b (486.2%) $-293.7m (89.1%) 32.1% (403.3%) $8.07 (456.6%)
2025 $9.2b (14.9%) $1.1b (-56.0%) $20.1m (106.8%) 12.3% (-61.7%) $1.71 (-78.8%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model