Discounted Cash Flow
PAR Pacific Holdings, Inc.
—
—
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
—
%
%
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $1.9b | $-45.8m | $-48.7m | -2.5% | $-1.08 |
| 2017 | $2.4b (31.0%) | $72.6m (258.4%) | $74.8m (253.5%) | 3.0% (221.0%) | $1.58 (246.3%) |
| 2018 | $3.4b (39.6%) | $39.4m (-45.7%) | $42.2m (-43.6%) | 1.2% (-61.1%) | $0.85 (-46.2%) |
| 2019 | $5.4b (58.4%) | $40.8m (3.5%) | $21.7m (-48.5%) | 0.8% (-34.6%) | $0.80 (-5.9%) |
| 2020 | $3.1b (-42.1%) | $-409.1m (-1102.4%) | $-100.7m (-564.0%) | -13.1% (-1832.8%) | $-7.68 (-1060.0%) |
| 2021 | $4.7b (50.7%) | $-81.3m (80.1%) | $-57.2m (43.3%) | -1.7% (86.8%) | $-1.40 (81.8%) |
| 2022 | $7.3b (55.4%) | $364.2m (548.0%) | $399.6m (799.1%) | 5.0% (388.2%) | $6.12 (537.1%) |
| 2023 | $8.2b (12.4%) | $728.6m (100.1%) | $496.9m (24.4%) | 8.9% (78.0%) | $12.14 (98.4%) |
| 2024 | $8.0b (-3.1%) | $-33.3m (-104.6%) | $-51.8m (-110.4%) | -0.4% (-104.7%) | $-0.59 (-104.9%) |
| 2025 | $7.5b (-6.4%) | $369.4m (1208.5%) | $296.5m (672.7%) | 4.9% (1284.3%) | $7.28 (1333.9%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.