Discounted Cash Flow

Paccar Inc.

PCAR · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $17.0b $521.7m $2.0b 3.1% $1.49
2017 $19.5b (14.2%) $1.7b (221.1%) $2.4b (19.8%) 8.6% (181.1%) $4.76 (219.5%)
2018 $23.5b (20.8%) $2.2b (31.0%) $2.7b (10.9%) 9.3% (8.5%) $6.25 (31.3%)
2019 $25.6b (9.0%) $2.4b (8.8%) $2.5b (-4.4%) 9.3% (-0.2%) $6.88 (10.1%)
2020 $18.7b (-26.8%) $1.3b (-45.6%) $2.7b (7.9%) 6.9% (-25.7%) $3.74 (-45.6%)
2021 $23.5b (25.6%) $1.9b (42.6%) $1.9b (-30.0%) 7.9% (13.6%) $5.33 (42.5%)
2022 $28.8b (22.5%) $3.0b (62.6%) $2.7b (40.6%) 10.4% (32.7%) $5.76 (8.1%)
2023 $35.1b (21.9%) $4.6b (52.8%) $3.8b (40.1%) 13.1% (25.3%) $8.78 (52.4%)
2024 $33.7b (-4.2%) $4.2b (-9.5%) $4.2b (12.4%) 12.4% (-5.6%) $7.92 (-9.8%)
2025 $28.4b (-15.5%) $2.4b (-42.9%) $4.0b (-5.3%) 8.4% (-32.4%) $4.52 (-42.9%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model